A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
